Fresh Market Headlines & Economic data

Fresh Market Headlines & Economic data

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• ⇒Eurozone investor morale falls further in July, German recession looms: Sentix
• ⇒German exports, industrial production up slightly in May
• ⇒German export engine revs up in May, but the second quarter still looks weak
• ⇒Turkish lira weakens 2.1% after central bank governor dismissed
• ⇒Conservative party wins Greek election, ousts left-wing PM
• ⇒Japanese bank lending falls to 2.3% y/y
• ⇒Japan May core machinery orders fall 7.8% mth/mth
• ⇒Japan posts current account surplus of 1.59tn yen in May
• ⇒BOJ’s Kuroda says moderate economic expansion to continue

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Calendar:

• ⇒U.S. consumer credit at 8:00 pm GMT
• ⇒Japan M2 money supply at 12:30 am GMT (July 9)
• ⇒Australia NAB Business conditions & confidence at 2:30 am GMT (July 9)
• ⇒Swiss unemployment rate at 6:45 am GMT (July 9)
• ⇒Canada housing starts at 1:15 PM GMT (July 9)
• ⇒Canada building permits at 1:30 pm GMT (July 9)
• ⇒Fed Chair Powell speaks at 1:45 pm GMT (July 9)

What to Watch: EUR/AUD

EUR/AUD 1-Hour Forex Chart

It’s been a slow start to the new trading week so far, and with the calendar not looking too encouraging for a big volatility move for the next twenty-four hours, we’re checking out some mainly technical setups for the first watchlist post of the week.

Today, we’re checking out EUR/AUD once again as the retest of the major support area around 1.6050 that we pointed out last week seems to have held off the bulls once again. So, with the pair consolidating, let’s take a look at a couple of setups to play the downtrend as the market continues to factor in the recent bearish euro themes and the possibility of the NAB business survey data driving some volatility for the Aussie.

First, if you’re a conservative type bear, then a further pullback is something you want to watch out for to play the downtrend at a better price. On the one hour chart above, we can see that within the most recent swing move lower from 1.6260 – 1. 6025, the Fibonacci retracement area could draw in resistance, especially given that it lines up with a minor area of interest and minor psychological level of 1.6150. If retest and the stochastic gets back into signaling overbought conditions, then look for bearish reversal candle before triggering a short play.

For the bolder traders, we’ve highlighted the pattern of the rising low, which if broken could draw momentum sellers once again. A solid break there and below the 1.6050, with a surprisingly positive read from the NAB business survey data, should give good odds for a move in EUR/AUD down to the major psychological level of 1.6000.  If so, the pair could see strong support, but if it breaks, the next major support area may not come until 1.5700 – 1.5800, and with a daily ATR of around 80 pips, that could be a very good potential return-on-risk that’s possible to see by the end of the week.

Canada Is upbeat,Mexico Says NAFTA Deal Unlikely This Week

Canada Is upbeat,Mexico Says NAFTA Deal Unlikely This Week

Mexico’s economy minister said that he saw diminishing chances for a new North American Free Trade Agreement ahead of a Thursday deadline to present a deal that could be signed by the current U.S. Congress.  U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan has said that the Republican-controlled Congress would need to be notified of a new NAFTA deal by Thursday to give lawmakers a chance of approving it before a newly elected Congress takes over in January.

“It is not easy. We do not think we will have it by Thursday,” Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo told broadcaster Televisa on Tuesday. But Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau struck a more upbeat tone, telling reporters in Calgary a few hours later, “There is very much an eminently achievable outcome … and we are very close.”

“We are going to continue to remain optimistic,” said Trudeau. He met with U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday and discussed the possibility of bringing NAFTA talks to a “prompt conclusion.”

Negotiators from the United States, Mexico and Canada have been in intense talks since last month to try to reach a deal before U.S. congressional elections in November. Mexico’s presidential vote on July 1 also complicates the process.

“We will keep negotiating, and in the moment that we have a good negotiation, we can close the deal … independent of which Congress (the current or new) that will vote on it,” said Guajardo. Mexico’s peso sank to its weakest level in over a year on Tuesday, and the country’s benchmark stock index fell about 1 percent to its lowest since early April. Guajardo said the talks could be concluded before or just after the July 1 vote. Leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is leading polls to win the presidential race, and his pick for economy minister, Graciela Marquez, said last month his administration would be willing to accept a deal struck before the election.

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The claims data has no bearing on January’s employment report

January’s employment report, which is scheduled to be released on Friday, as it falls outside the survey period. According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls probably rose by 180,000 jobs in January after increasing by 148,000 in December.

In a second report on Thursday, the Labor Department said nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, fell at a 0.1 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter. That was the first drop and weakest performance since the first quarter of 2016.Third-quarter productivity was revised to show it rising at a pace of 2.7 percent instead of the previously reported 3.0 percent rate. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2016, productivity increased at a rate of 1.1 percent.Hours worked increased at a rate of 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter, the fastest in three years, after rising at a 1.2 percent pace in the third quarter. Unit labor costs, the price of labor per single unit of output, rose at a pace of 2.0 percent in the final three months of 2017 after slipping at a rate of 0.1 percent in the third quarter

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Businesses Pull Back,Canada’s Economy Slows

Businesses Pull Back,Canada’s Economy Slows
Canadian economic growth slowed to 1.7 percent in the third quarter, coming off a hot first half of the year as exports tumbled and businesses pulled back on investment, data from Statistics Canada showed on Friday.Exports were the main drag on the economy in the third quarter, falling by 10.2 percent on an annualized basis as shipments of vehicles and parts fell amid work stoppages and changes to certain models sent to the U.S. market.

Business investment in non-residential structures, machinery and equipment grew by 3.7 percent, slowing substantially from the second quarter. The Bank of Canada has said uncertainty about North American trade policy is likely dampening business confidence.The housing sector also weighed on growth, with investment in residential structures down 1.4 percent as ownership transfer costs fell, reflecting slower resale activity.

Bank of England Leaves Rates On Hold

The Bank of England kept interest rates at a record low again on Thursday and cut its forecasts for growth and wages as it warned that Brexit was weighing on the economy.The gloomier outlook for the next two years further reduced speculation that the BoE was close to its first rate hike in a decade.Governor Mark Carney nonetheless sought to keep alive the possibility of one next year.

He said uncertainty about Brexit — in particular lower investment by companies — meant the economy could not grow as fast as before without pushing up inflation. So, just a small improvement in growth could bring forward a rate hike.“The speed limit, if you will, of the economy has slowed,” he told reporters. “That … could have consequences for monetary policy, depending on the evolution of demand.”

But investors saw no sign that the BoE was in a hurry to raise rates, a contrast to the outcome of its June meeting.The pound hit a nine-month low against the euro and fell by more than a cent against the U.S. dollar. Shares rose and British government bond prices jumped.

Bets on interest rate futures suggested investors had pushed back their expectation for the first BoE rate hike by four months to December next year, RBC Capital Markets said. Central banks around the world have struggled to wean their economies off the stimulus of rock-bottom interest rates, largely because of weak wage growth for workers.

The Bank said it might raise borrowing costs a bit more than investors expect over the next three years.But U.S. bank Citi said the BoE was probably more worried about the risks of a disorderly Brexit than it let show.“Brexit downside risks are larger than the MPC can formally acknowledge, which keeps the bar for a pre-2019 rate hike high, in our view,” analysts at the bank said in a note to clients.

The Bank kept its asset purchase programs unchanged on Thursday. It also said a bank lending scheme would end as on schedule in February 2018.Analysts at HSBC predicted the 6-2 vote for keeping rates on hold would become 7-2 once when the finance ministry’s top economist Dave Ramsden joins the MPC in September. He oversaw the ministry’s pre-referendum forecasts about Brexit which warned of a hit to the economy from a Leave vote

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U.K.’s retail sales report will be released (March)

The retail sales report is important to forex traders and decision makers alike because it is the primary gauge for the level of consumer spending in the U.K. economy. And consumer spending, in turn, has been the backbone of the British economy, as well as one of the main drivers for domestic inflation.

Moreover, the minutes of the March MPC meeting revealed that “some members noted that it would take relatively little further upside news on the prospects for activity or inflation for them to consider that a more immediate reduction in policy support might be warranted.” The retail sales report is also therefore linked to BOE rate hike expectations.

What happened last time?

• Headline retail sales m/m: 1.4% vs. 0.4% expected, -0.5% previous
• Headline retail sales y/y: 3.7% vs. 2.6% expected, 1.0% previous
• Core retail sales m/m: 1.3% vs. 0.4% expected, -0.3% previous
• Core retail sales y/y: 4.1% vs. 3.1% expected, 2.1% previous

The retail sales report for the February period was actually pretty good, since the headline reading for retail sales volume surged by 1.4% month-on-month, easily exceeding the +0.4% consensus.

Even better, the surge in February is the first positive reading after three straight months of negative monthly readings. Not only that, all store types also reported higher sales volume.

Year-on-year, retail sales jumped by 3.7%, easily beating the +2.6% consensus, as well as the previous month’s 1.0% increase. In addition, the faster increase in February puts an end to the four months of ever weaker year-on-year increases for both the headline and core readings.

However, not all store types reported better sales volume, since household goods stores reported a 1.9% decrease in sales while fuel stations printed a 0.1% decrease in sales volume. Overall, still pretty good, though.

And since the U.K.’s retail sales report was net positive, pound bulls reacted by buying up the pound across the board.

March 2017 Recovery in Volumes

Forex ECN Hotspot FX reported a 10% month-over-month gain in March trading volumes, amounting to $29.7 billion average daily volume (ADV) and chalking up it second-best month next to the election-driven November 2016 volumes of $30.6 billion. GTX, which is the institutional arm of Gain Capital Holdings, reported record ECN volumes for the same month at $11.8 billion, up 23% from February and a whopping 61% on a year-over-year basis.

As for FastMatch, which is jointly owned by Global Brokerage Inc, Credit Suisse and BNY Mellon Corp, trading volumes jumped 16% on a monthly basis in March to $19.2 billion ADV. This is its best-ever month in volumes, even higher than its November 2016 ADV at $17.1 billion.

For CME Group, forex volumes increased 28% from February to 978,000 contracts per day in March 2017, up 7% from March 2016. This was spurred by higher volumes of Japanese yen futures and options, as well as GBP futures and options.

Over in Japan, the the Tokyo Financial Exchange reported a 12.3% month-over-month gain in trading volumes for March at 2,697,615 contracts on its Click 365 platform, still down 21.5% from the same month last year

Interestingly enough, Japanese online trading firm Monex Group reported a 1.93% dip in monthly trading volumes to 257,717 daily average revenue trades or DARTs, although average trade values in yen ticked higher. The total number of FX accounts also took a hit to 65,175 but the number of active accounts increased during the month.

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Major events, reports, and other catalysts for the other currencies:

EUR – Euro bulls and euro bears were both reinforcing their positions. However, the rather drastic increase in fresh euro shorts easily overwhelmed the increase in euro longs. And the substantial increase in euro shorts was very likely due to political jitters in continental Europe, with the April 23 French presidential elections and March 15 Dutch parliamentary election in focus. The increase in euro longs, meanwhile, was likely a reaction to the string of positive reports for the Euro Zone at the time. The PMI readings for the Euro Zone were at multi-year highs, for example.

GBP – Net change in positioning on the pound was only very minimal. And positioning activity was also very minimal, with fresh pound shorts increasing by a mere 38 contracts and pound longs being reduced slightly by 786 contracts. The small decrease in pound longs was probably due to some pound bulls getting spooked by the U.K.’s disappointing jobs report and poor retail sales report were released. However, it’s kinda interesting that only a few pound bulls got scared off by the poor data. Although positioning activity does not yet reflect the U.K.’s revised GDP estimate, wherein the business investment component turned out to be a disappointment.

JPY – The yen took ground from the Greenback for the eighth consecutive week. And demand for the yen likely picked up, thanks to plunging U.S. bond yields, which also dragged the yields of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) lower, leading speculators to believe that the BOJ won’t be buying up JGBs to lower yield of 10-year JBGs close to 0%, as mandated by its monetary policy framework. As for what drove U.S. bond yields lower, safe-haven demand for U.S. bonds because of political uncertainty in Europe is one. Another is the search for higher yields.

CHF – Net bearish bets on the Swissy fell once more, and that was thanks another reduction in Swissy shorts. There wasn’t really much in terms of Swiss data during the week ending on February 21. Although Switzerland’s larger-than-expected trade surplus may have spooked some Swissy bears (CHF4.73B vs. CHF 3.03B expected, CHF 2.69B previous). Other than that, Swissy bears may have been convinced to abandon ship when risk appetite prevailed during February 20-21.

AUD – Non-commercial forex traders really ramped up their bullish bias on the Aussie. And a closer look at positioning activity shows that the net increase in bullish bias was all due to fresh longs, since short bets on the Aussie were essentially unchanged. This very bullish positioning activity on the Aussie was likely a reaction to the RBA’s meeting minutes, which said that the “fall in GDP in the September quarter had reflected some temporary factors.” Moreover, “resource exports were expected to make a significant contribution to growth over the forecast period and the drag on growth from falling mining investment was expected to wane.” This apparently reinforced the idea that the RBA won’t be cutting rates again anytime soon.

NZD – Both Kiwi bulls and Kiwi bears pared their bets. However, slightly more Kiwi shorts got culled, so the Kiwi continued to advance against the Greenback. Although the advance was so minimal that net positioning was essentially unchanged. Anyhow, the reduction in Kiwi longs was probably a reaction to the miss in New Zealand’s quarterly retail sales report, as well as the decline in dairy prices during the latest dairy auction. The fall in Kiwi shorts, meanwhile, was likely due to profit taking after the Kiwi plunged in the wake of the February RBNZ statement.

CAD – The Loonie was pushed deeper into bullish territory, thanks to an increase in fresh Loonie longs. The additional longs bets on the Loonie was likely a reaction to the rise in oil prices at the time. Although it’s also possible that positioning activity reflects optimistic speculation ahead of Canada’s top-tier economic reports, namely CPI and retail sales.

Got any other conclusions you can draw from this latest COT Report? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section or if you’re looking for further discussion, community member ForExchange has a lively thread called Trading based on Market Sentiment in the forums awaiting your participation

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Economic Snapshot: Australia

orex mates! If you’re wondering how Australia’s economy is faring recently, or if you just wanna see the “bigger picture” now that the RBA statement is done and over with, then this Economic Snapshot is just for you.

Growth

• Australia’s Q4 2016 GDP contracted by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, missing expectations for a 0.2% expectation.
• This is the first contraction since Q1 2011.
• In addition, this is the worst reading since Q4 2008.
• The 10.4% slump in government investment, otherwise known as public gross fixed capital formation, was THE major drag, subtracting 0.5% from Australia’s quarter-on-quarter GDP growth.
• Back in Q2, the rather large 16.8% increase in government investment was THE main driver, adding 0.7% to GDP growth.
• In fact, I quipped in my September’s Economic Snapshot for Australia that “Basically, the Australian economy was kept afloat by the government.”
• The 0.8% fall in private investment was also a major drag, subtracting 0.2% from total GDP growth.
• Private investment has been contracting for seven consecutive quarters already as of Q3.
• Investment in residential and non-residential building got hit the hardest.
• And according to the GDP report, the slide in construction activity “can be partly attributed to high rainfall levels.”
• That’s right, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is blaming the weather.
• Net trade was also a major drag, subtracting 0.2% from total GDP growth.
• The negative contribution from trade was due to the 1.3% increase in imports easily overpowering the 0.3% increase in exports.
• Year-on-year, Australia’s economy grew by 1.8% in Q3.
• This a drastic slowdown from Q2’s 3.1% annual rate of growth.
• Moreover, this is the slowest year-on-year expansion since 2009.
• The drastic slowdown was due to weaker government spending and household spending, but the biggest factor was the much weaker positive contribution from trade.
• Exports only increased by 6.0% in Q4 (9.6% previous) while imports also increased by 2.3% (-0.5% previous).
• As a result net trade only added 0.7% to total GDP in Q4 (+2.2% previous).

Employment

• Australia’s seasonally-adjusted jobless rate worsened from 5.7% to a six-month high of 5.8% in December.
• This marks the second straight month of deteriorating readings for the jobless rate.
• But on a slightly more upbeat note, the labor force participation rate improved from 64.6% to 64.7%.
• This marks the second consecutive month of improvements for the participation rate.
• The deterioration in the jobless rate therefore isn’t that bad.
• Still, the number of unemployed people increased from 726.4K to 741.1K, so the Australian economy wasn’t able to absorb the influx of new and/or returning workers.
• In terms of job growth, the Australian economy saw a net increase of 13.5K jobs in December.
• Australia has been seeing positive jobs growth for three consecutive months already.
• The net increase in December was due to 9.3K full-time jobs and 4.2K part-time jobs.
  Australia has been generating full-time jobs for three straight months already.
• However, full-time job creation has been slowing, with the most recent reading being the lowest.

Inflation

• Q4 2016’s headline CPI rose by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, slower than Q3’s +0.7%.
• Year-on-year, CPI grew by 1.5%, accelerating from the previous quarter’s 1.3%.
• This marks the second month of improvements for the annual reading.
• The reading is in line with the RBA’s forecast from its November Monetary Policy Statement.
• It’s still some distance from the lower bound of the RBA’s target range, though.
• For reference, the RBA’s target range for annual headline inflation is 2-3%.
• Meanwhile, the annual core reading slowed further from 1.7% to 1.6%, a low not seen since 1998.
• However, the reading is still a tick higher than the RBA’s forecast of 1.5%.
• On a quarter-on-quarter basis, 4 out of the 11 sub-components got hit in Q4, with the rest printing increases.
• In contrast only 3 of the 11 sub-components got hit in Q3.

Business Conditions & Sentiment

• The National Australia Bank’s (NAB) business confidence index held steady at 6 index points in December.
• Business sentiment has been positive since September 2013.
• However, the NAB business conditions index spiked from 6 to 11 index points.
• Commentary from NAB noted that the spike was due to large gains in profitability and and trading conditions.
• In addition, NAB warned that the rebound could be temporary, adding that “Weakness in retail conditions is particularly concerning given the importance of household
  consumption to the economic outlook. In addition, we are not seeing any real signs in the Survey of a convincing recovery in non-mining
  investment – crucial to both near-term and longer-term growth prospects.”
• The NAB labour costs index, meanwhile, showed that wage growth moderated in
• December, growing by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter (+0.7% previous).
• Overall, NAB concluded that its survey results are “encouraging” but a closer look “raises some doubts over the sustainability of any rebound.”
• Moving on, business loans in December grew at a faster pace, increasing only by 1.1% month-on-month (+0.6% previous).
• This is the biggest monthly increase in business credit since September 2015.
• Also, business loans have been increasing for six consecutive months already.
• Year-on-year, business loans increased by 5.6% (+4.9% previous).
• This is the best reading in four months.
• Business credit has been growing (on an annual basis) since September 2011.
• Looking forward, the Australian Industry Group’s (AIG) performance of manufacturing index (PMI) suddenly plunged from 55.4 to 51.2 in January.
• The slump in the headline reading was due to a broad-based slump across most of the sub-indices, with production, new orders, exports, sales, and deliveries all taking hits.
• AIG’s performance of services index (PSI) also got hit, diving from 57.7, a high not seen since May 2007, to 54.5 in January.
• The weaker reading was due to lower readings for 4 out of the 5 sub-indices.
• As for AIG’s performance of construction index (PCI), it rose from 47.0 to a four-month high of 47.7 in January.
• The reading is still below the 50.0 stagnation level, though, so the construction sector is still contracting, albeit at a slightly slower pace.
• AIG’s PCI reading has been below 50.0 for four consecutive months already.

Consumer Sentiment & Housing

• On a monthly basis, retail trade turnover fell by 0.1% between November and December.
• This is the first negative monthly reading in four months.
• Also the monthly readings for retail trade turnover had been trending lower for four consecutive months already.
• The year-on-year reading, meanwhile, printed a weaker 3.2% increase (3.3% previous).
• Regarding personal loans, both the monthly and annual readings were in negative territory in December.
• On a monthly basis, personal credit fell by another 0.1% in December.
• Aside from October’s flat reading, personal credit has been falling on a monthly basis throughout 2016.
• Year-on-year, personal loans dropped by 1.3%, the worst reading in three months.
• As such, it’s no real wonder why retail trade turnover also fell.
• Housing loans to owner-occupiers, meanwhile, continue to grow at a steady 0.4% month-on-month.
• Year-on-year, it moderated further, printing a 6.4% pace, which is the lowest reading since October 2015.
• As for housing loans to investors, they grew by 0.8% month-on-month, accelerating from November’s +0.7%.
• On an annual basis housing loans to investors grew by 6.2%, which is much faster than the previous month’s 5.6%.
• The current annual reading is the fastest pace of growth since March 2016.
• Housing loans to investors have been steadily picking up the pace after bottoming out at an annual pace of 4.6% back in August 2016.
• This may mean that speculative pressure on the Australian housing market is beginning to pick up again, increasing the chance of a housing bubble, but the reducing the chance of further rate cuts.
• Trend wise, overall housing credit continued to ease, though, increasing only 6.3% year-on-year, the same pace as previous, and a shared lowest since June 2014.

Trade

• Australia seasonally-adjusted surplus widened to around $3,510 million in December.
• That’s in Aussie dollars, by the way.
• This is the largest trade surplus on record since comparable records began in 1971.
• In addition, this marks the second month of surpluses after over 30 consecutive months of deficits.
• The wider trade deficit was mainly due to exports surging by 5.4% to a record high of $32,630 million.
• This easily overwhelmed the 0.7% rise in imports to $29,120 million.

Forex Watchlist: Where to Short GBP/USD?

I believe that even though the Fed will likely have trouble sticking to their plan to raise interest rates thrice this year, the fact of the matter is that they ARE tightening their policies while other major central banks are busy making stimulus rain for their respective economies.
This is why I got tingles (the good kind) when I saw Cable’s 4-hour and daily time frames. Okay, maybe I was also watching Ryan Gosling gush about “his lady,” but GBP/USD’s setup also looked pretty good to me.
As you can see on the daily chart below, GBP/USD is forming a possible double bottom around the 1.2100 major psychological area with the “neckline” lining up around 1.2700 – 1.2800 zone. Oh, and look at the bullish divergence on the chart!f we zoom in on the 4-hour time frame, we can see that the bulls have actually defended the 1.2100 (which is near the bottom weekly ATR, btw) not once, not twice, but THRICE in the last couple of months. Will the bulls continue to hold the fort? Or is the third time the charm for pound bears?
A quick look at the forex calendar tells me that there are at least three speeches that could push the pound in either direction. I’m seeing scheduled speeches by BOE’s Mark Carney, Fed’s Janet Yellen, and today’s presser by President-elect Trump. Uncle Sam’s retail sales report scheduled on Friday could also fuel any dollar move especially if Trump manages to rock the market boats significantly.
In the U.K.’s camp, I’m counting on more Brexit-related headlines to push the pound lower. Unless Theresa May and/or Mark Carney reassures market players that there won’t be a “hard Brexit,” I believe that market players will continue to equate the Brexit process to uncertainty.f the pound does see a bounce over the next couple of hours, then I’ll be watching the 1.2300 (which lines up with the 100 SMA) and 1.2400 (which lines up with the 200 SMA and last week’s high) areas of interest closely. And if the pound rally gains steam, then I’ll keep close tabs on the 1.2700 area, which is near a previous high.
But if more forex traders price in their uncertainty (like I’m about to do) over Brexit in the next couple of days, then we’ll likely see Cable drop to new lows instead of bouncing. In this case, I’ll be ready to scale in and start building my short orders. Maybe after it breaches the 1.2000 mark?
That’s it for my watchlist today! I’ll add details of my entry and exit strategies depending on the strength and direction of the pound’s move, but for now, I’m looking for ways to start building a long-term short position.

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Top 3 Life Lessons from Forex Trading

1. Trading encourages discipline

Contrary to the “Get one million pips in a month” ads we’ve seen, trading is far from easy. Just like professional sports and other high performance careers, trading is a craft that must be honed day in and day out. And just like other professions, trading requires discipline.
Developing discipline requires planning, tons of practice, and turning those planned tasks into habits. In trading, discipline is acquired by taking the time to study the fundamentals and charts, sticking to the trading plan, and even logging in trade journals. Remember that there’s a name for trading without discipline – gambling.

2.Trading pushes us to go beyond our comfort zone

For most people, risking money is very uncomfortable because after all, nobody wants to lose their hard earned cash. This leads to common uncomfortable trading scenarios such as “cutting winning trades in fear of them turning into losing ones,” or “not cutting losing trades quickly in hopes that it will turn into a winner.” In other words, it’s more comfortable to hold on to losers and cut winners quickly–the exact opposite of what traders are supposed to do!
As the great trading psychologist, Dr. Brett Steenbarger, once said, “Your growth always lies on the other side of your discomfort. Whether it’s in the weight room or career decisions, you’ll never develop yourself by staying in your comfort zone.

3. Trading teaches us about emotional balance

I’m sure that many of you have gotten burned by overconfidence. You believe that you’re on a roll and that you can’t lose, so you end up taking trades without taking the time for proper analysis. You end up taking dumb trades, or risking way more than you should, and before you know it, your account gets hit with a massive loss.
I’m also sure that more than once, you’ve found yourself paralyzed by the lack of confidence. You spot a great setup that you would normally take, but because you’ve lost your last 5 trades, you decide not to take the trade. And of course, the pair ends up going in your direction and hitting your take profit point. Yikes!
In trading we learn that we can’t get too caught up when we’re winning, nor should we be too hard on ourselves when we’re losing. Eventually, all traders also learn that the best state of mind is one that is both even-tempered and relaxed.
This is true in other aspects of life as well. People make poor decisions when they wear their emotions on their sleeve. They get taken advantage of when they are overconfident, or miss out on good opportunities when they are scared.

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Forex Preview: Canada’s Jobs Report

If you’re looking for a likely catalyst for the Loonie after the OPEC meeting, then just know that Canada will be releasing its jobs report this Friday (Dec. 2, 1:30 pm GMT). And if you need to get up to speed on what happened last time and what economists are expecting this time, then today’s write-up will help you out.

What happened last time?

• Jobless rate: steady at 7.0% as expected
• Net employment change: +43.9K vs. -10.0K expected, +67.2K previous
• Labor force participation rate: ticked higher from 65.7% to 65.8%

I wrote in an earlier article that with regard to Canada’s October jobs report, economists “seem to have streaks when it comes to forecasting.” I also noted that “in the past few years, economists have been underestimating their forecasts, which is why the actual readings has been coming in better-than-expected.”
Well, it turns out that economists underestimated their seasonally-adjusted forecast again, since net employment in October came in at +43.9K. This is obviously better than the expected net loss of 10K jobs.

True, the headline number looks awesome, but delving into the details does reveal some weakness. To be more specific, full-time employment actually suffered a net loss of 23.1K jobs, which is the first loss in full-time jobs after two straight months of increases. The fall in full-time jobs was offset by the 67.1K increase in part-time jobs, though, which is why net employment still printed an increase.
Looking at the other indicators, the jobless rate held steady at 7.0% for the third month in a row. And it’s apparently a healthy sign, since the labor force actually increased by 149.3K to 19,525.7K, which then caused the labor force participation rate actually ticked higher from 65.7% to a six-month high of 65.8%. This means that despite the influx of workers who joined (or rejoined) the labor force, the Canadian economy was able to absorb them, which is good. However, the fact that all of the job gains were part-time jobs removes some of the shine from the Canadian economy.
Overall, the jobs report was pretty positive, with the exception of the loss of full-time jobs of course. As such, the initial reaction was to try and buy up the Loonie. Unfortunately for Loonie bulls, the release of Canada’s jobs report coincided with news that Saudi Arabia and Iran were butting heads again, which sent oil prices tumbling very hard. In the process, the Loonie also got weakened and lost ground to its forex rivals.

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HLHB Trend-Catcher System Update

As you can see on the chart above, EUR/USD was on a VERY tight range before and after the U.S. elections took place. Luckily, the HLHB caught some of the euro rally right until Trump was declared the winner. Then, much like signal #6, signal #7 also caught a huge chunk of the dollar’s rally until Friday’s new signal. The gains from signals 6 and 7 helped push the HLHB’s net weekly gains to 218 pips by the end of the week. Woohoo!GBP/USD wasn’t as action-packed as EUR/USD during the elections. Though the pair traded on tight ranges, it lacked the big moves that we saw in EUR/USD while the elections were ongoing. In fact, only signal #4 managed to catch serious pips. Unfortunately, Cable also sported tons of fakeouts throughout the week. By the end of the week, the small little losses added together and put a 33-pip dent on the HLHB’s coffers.

Australia’s September Job Reports

The report showed that a net of 9,800 workers lost jobs in September, which is far from the 15,200 job gains that market players were expecting. And what’s worse than weak reports? Downward adjustments to last month’s already weak numbers, of course! August’s unemployment rate was revised higher from 5.6% to 5.7% while the net job losses was revised from 3,900 to 8,600. Yikes!
The only bright spot was the decrease of the unemployment rate from 5.7% to 5.6% and even that was taken with a bucket of salt. See, the labor participation rate also fell from 64.7% to 64.5%, the lowest in almost two years. With a net job loss for the month, this means that the decrease in unemployment rate was mostly due to workers giving up on their job prospects instead of finding them.

Part-time means hard time for Australians

If we look closely at the 9,800 job losses, we’ll see that it’s due to 53,000 workers losing their full-time jobs. This marks the biggest monthly drop since April 2011! What’s more, this is only partially offset by the 43,200 gain in part-time work.
So far the 162,800 part-time jobs added this year is the biggest gain on record going back to 1978. Meanwhile, the 112,100 full-time jobs cut in the same period marks the worst since 1991 when the economy was in recession.
To add insult to injury, the underemployment rate, or the portion of those who are employed but want to work longer hours, is now at a record high of 8.7%, a huge gap from last year’s 7.8%.
So while the unemployment rate is at its lowest in three years, we know that it’s partly due to potential workers giving up on looking for jobs and partly because workers are now accepting part-time jobs and are working for less hours than they’d like.
The prospect is worrying investors who believe that the understatement of Australia’s labor market problems will lead to limited household income growth. Already ratings agency Moody’s warned that underemployment was a major cause of rising mortgage repayment arrears, which are at a three-year high nationally and record levels in Western Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory.

Weekly Inflection Points to Watch

Here are the major chart levels as well as possible catalysts you might want to watch out for if you’re trading major dollar pairs this week!

	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF
Open Price	1.1224	1.2964	101.03	0.9698
Last Week’s High	1.1258	1.3122	102.80	0.9820
Last Week’s Low	1.1123	1.2913	100.10	0.9660
Top Weekly ATR	1.1308	1.3123	102.27	0.9778
Bottom Weekly ATR	1.1139	1.2805	99.70	0.9618

“Feel the Market.”

It still amazes me how pros are able to produce awesome pictures from otherwise ordinary subjects. It probably took them tons of practice to know how to adjust camera settings to use the current lighting, background, or environment to their advantage. Even then, there are no hard and fast rules for each situation.
Similarly, in forex trading, one has to learn to gauge market sentiment, listen to what the charts are saying, and adjust accordingly.
More often than not, it’s also about getting the timing right. That’s why intuition plays a huge role. Not to be confused with taking impulsive trades based on gut feel, forex trading demands a special type of intuition that many refer to as “feeling the market” or “being in the zone.”
I’m talking about that specific point in your forex trading career wherein you have gained enough experience to label market behavior (trending, ranging, breaking out, or consolidating) and know what trading setup you will take to tilt the odds slightly in your favor.
Did you just turn psychic? Did this just magically happen? Heck no! Just like in any other art form, some are born with the natural talent while others acquire the skill. Either way, you arrived at this point because of constant refinement and deliberate practice.
Through these actions, you have learned to trust yourself and observe the forex market in an analytical and “artful” way, and not merely by guessing.
You have found out that trading is more of an art than an exact science, and that there really is no clear “signal” or set of rules that indicate that the market environment has changed.
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Forex Brokers Guide

In the first step, you will go through some of the main questions you need to ask yourself when reviewing different brokers.  Then you will take a look at different brokers and their available features. We have put together a comparison guide by taking some of the most frequently asked questions across the internet, and surveyed some of the most frequently asked about brokers out there, so that you don't have to. A tried and tested way of carrying foreign exchange in Ahmedabad overseas. Money Changer cheques are widely accepted globally as a mode of payment. It is always worthwhile taking some of your foreign exchange in Money Changer in Ahmedabad's cheques as it is a great backup to cash and cards.

Step 1: Do your research

Before comparing brokers, do you know what to look for? No? Well, here are a few of the main questions you should ask yourself:

1. Is this broker registered with any regulating authorities? Check to see if your broker of choice is registered with the National Futures Association (NFA) or Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) if they're based in the US. If the broker is based in the United Kingdom, check with the Financial Service Authority (FSA). If the broker isn't registered with any of these or any other recognized regulating firm, then you may want to think twice before signing up with them.
2. Dealing Desk or Non-Dealing Desk broker? Does the broker offer fixed or non-fixed spreads? How wide are the spreads? These questions are more significant to those traders who like to take quick profits on a few pips. Large and/or variable spreads can cut into the profits of this type of trading strategy.
3. How much or how little leverage will a broker give you?  We highly recommend you review "Leverage the Killer" before deciding on how much leverage would be suitable for your trading style. The phrase, "Less is More," can save every newbie
4. Of course, you’re not going to start trading with real money right away, right? Well, when you do having a winning strategy and you are ready to trade live; knowing how much risk capital you have to start with makes a big difference. If you have $2000 or less to start with then you probably want to start trading "micro" lots. Not every broker has this feature.
5. Does this broker credit or debit daily rollover interest? Some brokers either do both, deduct interest, or neither.  This information is important for traders who hold positions overnight.
6. Does this broker offer premium services such as charting, news feeds, and market commentary? How important are premium services to my trading?

Step 2: Open demo accounts and ask questions. 

Pick at least two brokers that fit most of your criteria and open up demo accounts. Trade-in different market environments. Learn all the different features of each trading platform. If you have questions, don't be afraid to ask. Many brokers have excellent customer service support and would be happy to answer your questions.
Most demo trading platforms are very similar to their live counterparts, but not exactly the same. There may be a difference in speed of execution, slippage, and platform reliability (most of the time live accounts are more reliable than demo accounts). When you do have your strategy down and you are ready to move to a live account, start off small, test the waters, and see if this particular broker will suit your trading needs.

Australia: The devil is in the details

• Unemployment rate fell to a three-year low of 5.7% in July
• A net of 26.2K workers found jobs in July vs. 10.2K expected, 10.8K in June
• Labor force participation rate unchanged at 64.9%
• Monthly hours worked rose by 0.2%

Headline job numbers from Australia printed a strong picture, with the unemployment rate falling and net jobs and monthly hours increasing. However, a closer look tells us that the jobs increase came from 71,600 part-time workers, as full-time employment actually dipped by 45,400 for the month. Analysts also point out that the surge in part-time work might have something to do with the extended tallying from the latest elections.
The gloomy details failed to sustain the Aussie’s gains throughout the day. The comdoll ended up erasing most (if not all) of its gains against its major counterparts and is even trading at new weekly lows as of writing. Yikes!