The November ISM manufacturing PMI likely retraced to 57.8, remaining
at a high but more sustainable level. The November Chicago PMI
retreated several points, almost fully reversing the nearly 6-point gain
in October. The preliminary US Markit manufacturing PMI also continued
its descent in November, falling slightly over a point to 54.7. But on
balance, regional manufacturing surveys indicate robust growth in
manufacturing activity. The ISM weight-adjusted Empire State
manufacturing index rebounded, while the adjusted Philly Fed index rose
several points to a more than ten year high. The forward-looking
components of the October ISM survey also suggest another strong reading
in November. In particular, the new orders index moved over 5 points
higher to 65.8, nearly touching a post-crisis high. We expect a slip in
the ISM manufacturing index to a level more consistent with its 12-month
average of around 55.8.
October construction spending likely rebounded 0.5% following two consecutive monthly declines. We
expect a bounce-back in October construction spending of 0.5%. Both
private non-residential and public sector spending posted declines in
the prior two months. We expect non-residential construction spending to
rebound given strong growth in commercial property prices since
September. Residential construction, which increased 0.4% in September,
likely rose at a stronger pace in October based on encouraging housing
data. Construction of housing units jumped in October, rising at a 1.4%
annual rate after virtually flat readings in the prior two months.
October housing starts were also strong, rising over 4%. On balance,
October construction spending likely rose 0.5%, more than reversing the
previous month’s decline
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